quinta-feira, 20 de fevereiro de 2020
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 191033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 533 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 16 ft. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the gales to abate by Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05S between 22W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 19/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from S Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. 5-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of central Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N between 82W-84W. A cold front along the Texas coast will slowly move southeastward through tonight. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri evening. Expect strong N-NE winds elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, 10-30 kt tradewind flow continues across the Caribbean Sea. Weakest winds are over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are moving within the tradewind flow south of 19N. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia at night. Winds and seas will diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic Thu through Fri night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 39N17W. A ridge axis extends WSW to N Florida. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N56W to 20N57W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm E of the trough axis. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast today will stall near 30N through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the forecast area Thu night through Sat. Near gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front on Fri. Winds will gradually diminish across the region Sat and Sun. Large NE swell is expected to impact much of the area this weekend. $$ Formosa
FQNT50 LFPW 190944 A SECURITE Weather bulletin on METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE Toulouse, Wednesday 19 February 2020 at 1015 UTC. Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE. Sea state in DOUGLAS SCALE. Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the significant height. WARNING : Regarding the elaboration and dissemination of routine bulletins, erratic service is possible following a strike notice. However, security aspects will be monitored on a permanent basis and warning bulletins will be sent out. Part 1 : WARNING NR 104. Part 2 : General synopsis, Wednesday 19 at 00 UTC Low 983 56N27W moving northeast, expected 948 65N10W by 20/12 UTC. Associated trough in south moving east, crossing areas above 38N. New low expected 981 54N51W by 20/00 UTC then 964 57N43W by 20/12 UTC. Shallow low expected 1019 over north Morocco by 20/00 UTC. High 1038 41N18W, expected 1028 over west Mediterranean Sea by 20/00 UTC. New high expected 1036 over Azores Islands by 20/12 UTC. Monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Part 3 : Area forecasts to Thursday 20 at 12 UTC FARADAY. In west : Veering Northwest 6 or 7 at first,decreasing 4 or 5 later then veering gradually Southwest 8 or 9 in northwest at end.. Severe gusts. In east : West or Southwest 7 or 8, decreasing West or Northwest 6 or 7 at first then veering gradually southwest 4 to 6 at end.Severe gusts. Very rough or high and cross,. Long W or SW swell 5 or 6 m abating at first. Rain and showers. ROMEO. In northwest : Southwest 7 or 8, veering West or Northwest 6 or 7 later, decreasing 2 to 4 at end. Gusts. In southeast : Southwest 6 or 7, veering Northwest later decreasing 4 or 5 at end. Gusts. Very rough or high and cross. Long W swell 4 or 5 m in north abating soon. Rain from northwest. ALTAIR. In northwest : West or Northwest 6 or 7, locally 8 at first decreasing Northwest 4 or 5 soon, becoming Variable clockwise 2 to 4 later then increasing southwest 7 or 8 in northwest at end. Severe gusts. In southeast : South or Southwest 6 or 7, veering Northwest soon becoming Variable clockwise 2 to 4 at end. Gusts. Rough or very rough and cross. Rain and showers. CHARCOT. In northwest : Southwest 6 or 7, veering Northwest 6 or 7soon decreasing 3 to 5 at end. Gusts. In southeast : Variable 2 to 4, becoming Southwest 4 or 5 soon, then veering North or Northeast 5 or 6, locally 7, at end. Rough or very rough and cross. Rain from west later. ACORES. In north : South or Southwest 5 or 6, veering North or Northwest at first then becoming Variable clockwise 3 to 5 at end. In south : Variable 2 to 4, veering North or Northeast 4 to 5, at times 6, from west soon then becoming Variable clockwise 3 to 5 at end. Moderate or rough. Rain and showers. JOSEPHINE. In northwest : Variable 2 to 4, increasing West or Southwest 5 or 6 in northwest soon, then veering progressively North or Northwest 6 or 7 from west later. In southeast : East or Northeast 5 or 6, veering Northerly 3 to 5 later. Rough or very rough, decreasing moderate or rough soon, but locally very rough and cross in north at end. Rain and showers. IRVING. East or Northeast 4 or 5, locally Variable 1 to 3 in north, increasing 4 to 6 at end. Moderate or rough. Scattered showers. MADEIRA. North or Northeast 5 or 6 with gusts, decreasing 4 or 5 at end. Rough or very rough and cross, decreasing rough soon then moderate or rough at end. PAZENN. Southwest 5 or 6 increasing 6 or 7 in northwest soon veering Northwest from west at end. Severe gusts. Very rough and cross. Long NW swell 4 or 5 m. Rain from west soon. IROISE, YEU. Increasing Southwest 5 or 6, then 6 or 7 tomorrow morning, and veering Northwest at end. Gusts. Rough or very rough with NW swell, becoming cross next night. Rain tomorrow. ROCHEBONNE. West or Southwest 4 or 5, increasing Southwest 5 or 6 in northwest next night. Rough or very rough with NW swell. CANTABRICO. Westerly 3 or 4, becoming Variable Clockwise 2 to 4 this afternoon, then increasing Southwest 5 or 6 in northwest tomorrow morning. Rough in NW swell. FINISTERRE. In north : West or Southwest 3 or 4, increasing Southwest 4 to 6, locally 7, soon then veering northerly in west at end. Gusts. In south : Northerly 2 to 4, backing Southwest soon, increasing 4 or 5 at end but Veering Northerly 5 or 6 in west. Rough increasing very rough in northwest at end. Rain from west at end. PORTO. North or Northeast 4 or 5, at times 6 in south at first, decreasing Northeast 2 to 4 soon then becoming Variable 2 to 4 later.. Rough becoming Moderate or Rough at end. SAO VICENTE. North or Northeast 4 or 5, increasing East or Northeast 6 or 7 in southeast soon. Gusts. Rough or very rough. CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT. In strait and leeward : East 6 or 7, increasing 7 or 8 at first. Severe gusts. Elsewhere : Northeast 4 to 6, veering Easterly later. Moderate or rough, locally very rough in west. CASABLANCA. North or Northeast 5 or 6 decreasing 4 or 5 later, locally Variable 1 to 3 near coasts. Rough or very rough and cross, abating rough later. AGADIR. Northeast 5 or 6 soon, locally 7 near coasts at first decreasing 4 or 5 later, locally Variable 1 to 3 near coasts. Very rough and cross, decreasing rough soon. Rain in far southeast at end. METEOR. East or Northeast 4 or 5, increasing 5 or 6 later. Rough. some scattered showers. CANARIAS. Northeast 5 or 6, locally 7 with gusts between Islands. Rough or very rough and cross, decreasing rough soon. TARFAYA. Northeast 4 or 5 decreasing 3 or 4 at end. Rough or very rough and cross, decreasing rough soon. CAPE VERDE. Northeast 5 or 6. Rough and cross. Sand haze in southeast. CAP BLANC. Northeast 5 or 6. Gusts. Rough or very rough and cross, decreasing rough soon. CAP TIMIRIS. North or Northeast 4 or 5. Rough. SIERRA LEONE. Northeast 4 or 5, but locally Variable 2 to 4 in southeast. Moderate or rough, locally slight in far southeast. Some rain in far southeast. GULF OF GUINEA. Southerly 2 or 3, but locally Variable 1 to 3 in north and east. Slight or moderate, locally rough in northwest at end. Thundersqualls with severe gusts. POINTE NOIRE. Southeasterly 2 to 4, at times 5 in far southwest. Moderate, locally slight in far east. Thundersqualls with severe gusts. Part 4 : outlook for next 24 hours Threat of Southwest gale or severe gale over FARADAY, ALTAIR and west of ROMEO. Threat of Northnear gale over CHARCOT, JOSEPHINE and MADEIRA. Persistence of East near gale or gale over CADIZ and GIBRALTAR STRAIT. Persistence of Northeast near gale over CANARIAS.